I rckn a lotta predictions go astray
because of what i think of as th Drexler Effect,
which is geeks believin that tech is what limits tech.
They simply don't consider th human effects.

Eg: rechargable batteries:
for years it seemed th physical limitations of NiCd's were insurmountable,
there were always "avenues of possible research",
but nothing ever came of them.
Then, within two years o mobile fones gainin wide acceptance,
voila, NiMH & Li-ion batteries.
What was needed was an incentive, a niche to fill.
With flash, it's been mp3-players & cameras.
Tech is an interdependant web, like any ecosystem.