Actually I was the one arguing that rotating platters still had YEARS in them. decrypt_era was arguing for the ascendency of flash. In the end it looks like we'll both be right. Hybrid Hard Drives seem to be the future, at least for another 5 years. After that, who knows?
Actually I was the one arguing that rotating platters still had YEARS in them
Not in our 1992 discussion ;-)
I (rather foolishly) raised the point that flash memory only a life-span of a few years - you pointed out that rotating platters tended to last that long as well.
I rckn a lotta predictions go astray because of what i think of as th Drexler Effect, which is geeks believin that tech is what limits tech. They simply don't consider th human effects.
Eg: rechargable batteries: for years it seemed th physical limitations of NiCd's were insurmountable, there were always "avenues of possible research", but nothing ever came of them. Then, within two years o mobile fones gainin wide acceptance, voila, NiMH & Li-ion batteries. What was needed was an incentive, a niche to fill. With flash, it's been mp3-players & cameras. Tech is an interdependant web, like any ecosystem.
I was arguing for th inevitability of solid state in general, which'l eventually end in optics. But in th meantime, i'd say silicon-style fabrication is coming up to a crunch point, and this'l spur th full-scale onset of th parallel paradigm, which should keep moore's law pumpin for anotha decade. We'll start gettin fully into biotech fabrication in th mid 20's, which'l actually be less dense to begin with, but 3D. Biotech will blend blurrily into th n-word, which should bring optics into full flower, late 40's, early 50's perhaps?
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cheshirenoir) wrote2007-01-11 10:05 am
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I remember all too well you heralding the bright future of flash memory in, what was it, 1992?
no subject
no subject
Not in our 1992 discussion ;-)
I (rather foolishly) raised the point that flash memory only a life-span of a few years - you pointed out that rotating platters tended to last that long as well.
no subject
because of what i think of as th Drexler Effect,
which is geeks believin that tech is what limits tech.
They simply don't consider th human effects.
Eg: rechargable batteries:
for years it seemed th physical limitations of NiCd's were insurmountable,
there were always "avenues of possible research",
but nothing ever came of them.
Then, within two years o mobile fones gainin wide acceptance,
voila, NiMH & Li-ion batteries.
What was needed was an incentive, a niche to fill.
With flash, it's been mp3-players & cameras.
Tech is an interdependant web, like any ecosystem.
no subject
which'l eventually end in optics.
But in th meantime,
i'd say silicon-style fabrication is coming up to a crunch point,
and this'l spur th full-scale onset of th parallel paradigm,
which should keep moore's law pumpin for anotha decade.
We'll start gettin fully into biotech fabrication in th mid 20's,
which'l actually be less dense to begin with, but 3D.
Biotech will blend blurrily into th n-word,
which should bring optics into full flower,
late 40's, early 50's perhaps?