Actually I was the one arguing that rotating platters still had YEARS in them
Not in our 1992 discussion ;-)
I (rather foolishly) raised the point that flash memory only a life-span of a few years - you pointed out that rotating platters tended to last that long as well.
I rckn a lotta predictions go astray because of what i think of as th Drexler Effect, which is geeks believin that tech is what limits tech. They simply don't consider th human effects.
Eg: rechargable batteries: for years it seemed th physical limitations of NiCd's were insurmountable, there were always "avenues of possible research", but nothing ever came of them. Then, within two years o mobile fones gainin wide acceptance, voila, NiMH & Li-ion batteries. What was needed was an incentive, a niche to fill. With flash, it's been mp3-players & cameras. Tech is an interdependant web, like any ecosystem.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2007-01-11 04:15 am (UTC)Not in our 1992 discussion ;-)
I (rather foolishly) raised the point that flash memory only a life-span of a few years - you pointed out that rotating platters tended to last that long as well.
no subject
Date: 2007-01-11 11:55 am (UTC)because of what i think of as th Drexler Effect,
which is geeks believin that tech is what limits tech.
They simply don't consider th human effects.
Eg: rechargable batteries:
for years it seemed th physical limitations of NiCd's were insurmountable,
there were always "avenues of possible research",
but nothing ever came of them.
Then, within two years o mobile fones gainin wide acceptance,
voila, NiMH & Li-ion batteries.
What was needed was an incentive, a niche to fill.
With flash, it's been mp3-players & cameras.
Tech is an interdependant web, like any ecosystem.